Belarus’ Economy: Growth, Challenges, and Political Tensions
Belarus’ economy is an important European presence, characterized by industrial production and a developing services sector. In recent years, the nation’s economy has experienced strong growth, leading to a decrease in unemployment and a rise in average disposable income. Yet, there are still challenges that the economy faces, such as dependence on Russia for imports and exports; this dependence may become deeper with the economic ties between the two countries. Moreover, the increasingly tense political situation between Belarus and the West signals the potential for further economic sanctions and greater economic hardship.
Historical Context and Economic Transformations
Belarus is a landlocked country with a population of about 9.4 million people. Following its declaration of independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus struggled with years of turbulence and economic decline. The nation’s economy contracted by 40 percent from 1990 to 1995. The decline was largely attributed to macroeconomic mismanagement and an unreformed ‘command style’ economy inherited from the Soviet era. However, the economy experienced a recovery in 2000, largely driven by the export of consumer goods, and the GDP began to slowly grow in 2000, with the GDP growth rate peaking at almost 9 percent in 2007.
Autarkic Economic System
Belarus operates a highly autarkic economic system, meaning that it is largely dependent on its own resources to satisfy its needs. Since the 1990s, the main pillars of the Belarusian economy have been aluminum, petroleum refining and processing, automotive manufacturing, and machine building. The economy is dominated by state-owned enterprises and the government actively intervenes in the economy – the public sector accounts for the majority of employment and contributes almost 60% of the country’s GDP.
Positive Economic Growth
Belarus has enjoyed positive economic growth for the past few years and has achieved economic stability. The nation’s economy has shown resilient and mostly steady performance, with a record high annual growth rate of 7.2 percent in 2017. In 2019, the population experienced an increase in real wages, a decreasing unemployment rate, a balanced budget and its lowest inflation rate since the 1990s. Overall, the country’s economy is in a much better state than it was when it began its transformation from Soviet-era economic planning.
Russia-Belarus Economic Ties
The Russian Federation is the primary economic partner for Belarus. As two members of the Eurasian Economic Union, the two countries have formed a Customs Union that allows for the unrestricted movement of goods between them. Belarus relies on Russia for trading activity both in terms of imports and exports. Almost 65 percent of Belarus’s foreign trade turnover is with Russia and in 2019 the two states signed a Memorandum of Compatibility to ensure economic growth.
Economic Challenges
Despite the positive economic growth, Belarus still faces economic challenges that could interfere with its progress. The country is held back by a lack of investment in infrastructure and a reliance on Russia for imports and exports. Belarus has a limited capacity to diversify its production and must heavily rely on raw materials and intermediate goods from Russia. In addition, the nation currently has one of the highest levels of corruption in the world, according to a 2017 survey by the Transparency International Corruption Perception Index, which ranks countries by the perceived levels of public sector corruption. This has hindered foreign investment and severely limited the potential of the nation’s economy.
Belarus and the West
In recent years, relations between Belarus and the West have become increasingly strained. This tense political situation has already had an impact on the country’s economy. In 2020, the European Union placed economic sanctions on Belarus as a response to human rights violations; this lead to additional economic hardship for the nation, as it lost access to foreign markets for some of its exports. The economic situation could become even worse if tensions between Belarus and the West continue to worsen, leading to further economic sanctions.
Belarus’ economy has experienced positive growth over the past few years, with a high annual growth rate in 2017 and an all-time low inflation rate. However, the nation still faces economic challenges, such as its reliance on Russia and a lack of investment in infrastructure. Moreover, the country is starting to suffer the economic consequences of its tense relations with the West. If the political situation continues to worsen, Belarus could face even more economic hardship in coming years.